Day 8 stuff

[ardor]

Ok, so DA, Elkamil and An_Alt have all seered innocent. We know that at least one of these guys, probably 2, are guilty. (Sorry DA, I can't trust the visions anymore). Buzz buzz is also out there.

I have a feeling that We will find a monster in An_Alt at least, so we should start there.

Then, we have to simply go after Elkamil and then Buzz Buzz and/or DA.

DA, if you are evil, I'm going to send you a batch of vinegar cookies as well.

[ardor]

Ok, here are my thoughts and why I think it this way.

I think when we get 2 visions, one is correct, and one is false.

I think this means DA is guilty, I also think this means only one of An_Alt or Elkamil are guilty.

However, with my gut about Plutonium I stick with my same thoughts about the trust issue. Yes, it's not viable between games, but I believe DA to be truthful at this time, however, I strongly feel that this is a mechanic to help the monsters end-game, by giving false seerings.

I think we should use our last 3 votes in this manner.

An_Alt
Elkamil
DA or Buzz buzz.

Let me know what you think, but I have to believe An_Alt is evil or Nerisa would've killed him for inactivity a while ago.

[ardor]

I'm thinking too much, but I have a question for you Discgrace.

You got two visions yesterday, and two visions today.

Which was the FIRST one you got? As in, it listed both Plutonium and DA. What vision was mentioned first in your pm?

I think whichever one Plutonium was (first mentioned or second) might be a false seering.

I'd rather base my vote upon that today I think.

If An_Alt was listed first or second, whatever matches Plutonium, I'd consider that the false seering. If he wasn't, maybe we should go after elkamil instead?

Let's see if Nerissa goofed on us in giving us an order in which to find the false seering.

[devoutlyapathetic]

Don't have much time to comment this morning before work but:

1) I'm not evil. I'm sure all your fears are properly assuaged now.
2) You case 1 with I being evil would require both visions to be bad, not just one.
3) I suspect that this is something like the Phallaid's "Rubberbanding" of the dead abilities. More evil people means more powers for the evils who are dead.

[ardor]

I'm sure it is.

If both visions were wrong, we have to guess the last bad guys and the seer is useless. That's unlikely and it would hurt us. I'd have to think that's not the case. Discgrace never mentioned that her powers would either fail or that there were any special conditions in her role pm, I'd have to think we simply get a good vision and a false vision. That's the only thing that makes sense to me. Anything else, and the seer role actually hurts us at this stage.

I stick by my vote.

Honestly, there are 4 possible bad guys right now.

An_Alt
Elkamil
Buzz Buzz
Ardor

You have 3 votes to win this. All I can offer you is my word that I'm not a bad guy. Everyone else has been cleared somehow. If Buzz Buzz somehow turns out to be good, I think you'll have to believe that it can only be Elkamil and An_Alt, but there's no way I can convince you of that at this stage. I'm taking a gamble that Nerissa would not allow Discgrace to get 2 incorrect visions. If so, you'll have to either trust me or stake me. It's the simple truth.

[ardor]

Now that I think about it, someone can state who the vigilante is going after. Buzz Buzz didn't know either vigilante's name and I've not talked in pm's to the other two. We can try to bluff our way into getting an admission somehow. It's unlikely going to get anything out of An_Alt, but we might get something out of Buzz Buzz or Elkamil.

I could state it as something like "The vigilante wanted to go after Elkamil/Buzz Buzz today, so hopefully we can cover the other option as well."

The problem is, I haven't mentioned the vigilante at all. So it might look like a bluff if I say anything about it now. If someone asks me about it, it might work. Up to you all.

[ardor]

If we are to assume that any vision cuold have been false, then we have to look at not only buzz buzz, elkamil and an_alt but DA and Cass. If your pm noted nothing about getting false seerings, then we have to assume they are all real until we started getting double visions. PK was innocent and we have to assume ElJeffe was, since the witches killed him.

I really, really think we have to go with one true and one false seering.

We've got:

Ardor - clamis innocence
Cass - seered innocent
DA - seered innocent
Discgrace - seer
Hakkekage - stonecutter
Mrballbaggins - stonecutter

and

Buzz buzz
Elkamil
An_alt

If we cannot trust our visions, the game is nothing more than luck right now. I don't really see the point in worrying about something that we can do nothing about, so we should really go with the better odds. Right now, that's Buzz buzz. We have to assume the 50/50 chance staking Elkamil or An_Alt will bring us a bad guy still, but really, buzz should be an obvious choice.

If you want to go with the other two, that's fine, but my vote stays. My hunch on Plutonium was right, I'm hoping my hunch is also correct here.

[cass]

Should we try to focus on an_alt or Elkamil? I have the feeling that we shouldn't try to split it, because the bad guys can change the vote. We may need a heavy bandwagon.

[ardor]

Note to self, Elkamil apparently doesn't pay much attention to this game. Since we don't vote for visions or anything, I can only assume he's lookig at the dead thread, more than likely because he forgot to look at the first day narration.

To be fair to Nerissa, we should not act on anything Elk tells us about. He may have been looking at information we are not allowed access to. I don't think him having that information should change much, unless he's a bad guy. Then it's going to really make his targets count.

We'll be fine and it'll be a close game, so I'm not worried or bothered by it. Whether busy or not, I wish the guy would pay closer attention to details if he chooses to play these games.

[nerissa]

Feel free to act on any information you get from Elks.

I didn't want to get involved in this conversation, but whatever he may be, any information he has was obtained legitimately.

[ardor]

I'm really curious how he got to know that legitimately. However, I'm not expecting to find out until the game is over.

So they are currently voting for him to be seered? Maybe that'll mean whatever vision we get of him tonight will be pure, provided we get his vision. I don't think it was necessary he say anything because we've got a ton of talent in the dead thread, they wouldn't be dumb enough to waste a vision or whatnot. I guess this is neat to assume my hunches were correct on day 1 about how the visions work.

Now, I guess we have to wait until he gets seered? I hope he's not a bad guy, that kind of information in our hands could've given us such a huge edge in the game.

Second thoughts. Forget about it. The responsibility of doing whatever the dead thread is doing is theirs alone. They should know pretty much everything we do, so it's not like we can really make a difference now.

[ardor]

So we are going to try an_alt tonight? Does my going after buzz buzz really seem out there?

[Hakkekage]

It does seem obtuse, but I went with it as recompense for your other 'out there' idea of false seerings.

We're playing this really close to the chest now, and like you said before, it's more about relying on luck than anything now that the seerings are essentially tainted.

[ardor]

We'll see. It's tied right now, Mrballbaggins can break it by overriding his son's vote with his own if he wishes. I guess we let the RNG handle it?

My guess on the false seerings was based upon Nerissa telling us it's going to be closer than we think or some such.

[mrballbaggins]

Ardor, I have faith in you, but with all the information Buzz Buzz has and how long he's had it, if he were a witch he could've destroyed the network by now. I know that doesn't necessarily make him innocent, but with the false seering and an_alt being seered as innocent, I have to go with my gut here.

And if you turn out to be the other witch, then you are one magnificent bastard, and I'll have to give kudos to a scam well pulled.

[mrballbaggins]

Well I'm dead. Good luck to you all.

[Hakkekage]

Good luck, Ardor


Left alive:

Hakkekage
DevoutlyApathetic
DisGrace
Buzz Buzz
Elkamil
Dread Pirate Cassandra

I think it's pretty clear that Buzz Buzz and Elkamil are baddies, now

GODDAMMIT WHY DID I DOUBT YOU ARDOR

AAUUUGH

[Hakkekage]

So Grace, what were your visions tonight? Or are you not online, and thus unable to clean your inbox?

[discgrace]

I wasn't online and my inbox got full with all the last-minute voting business.

So. Do y'all want to kill Elks or Buzz Buzz tomorrow?

[Hakkekage]

I don't know. did you get a seering on Elks yet?

[discgrace]

No, but they should both be evil, right? 1/3 of the villagers are evil now and those that remain are:

Hakkekage
Grace
Elkamil
Buzz Buzz
Cass
DevoutlyApathetic

Cass, but not DA or Elks, was seered pre-double vision, so I think it's safe to say she's all right. If I got two false visions on the same night and both DA was okay while Plutonium was evil, well, that's just shitty. D: I think we just have to pick one of them to go after: That'll give us 4 remaining good guys and one bad guy; the bad guy kills someone overnight, and the remaining 3 of us vote him down.

Personally I'm annoyed at Elkamil for evading my visions, so I vote for him.

[Hakkekage]

Right then, I'll switch to Elkamil.

So you really didn't get any seerings tonight? Weird. Maybe the dead baddies can cancel out a seering.

[discgrace]

Oh, and yes, I did have a vision of Elkamil at the same time I had a vision of an_alt, and they both came up as innocent.

[Hakkekage]

Ok, cool. So Elkamil is most likely it.

Right, then. I think we can win this pretty easily if he is evil.

[discgrace]

Tonight's vision: Elkamil = changeling, DA = witch.

Woooo.